Sunday, August 30, 2015

x - 71 Louis Sheehan


        


"The Democratic Party was looking for a scapegoat, and I think effectively tried to paint, and did paint, Ralph Nader as the reason why they were not in office, not the fact that ten million more Democrats voted for George Bush than voted for Ralph Nader."

In 1966, General Motors, then the most powerful corporation in the world, sent private investigators to dig up dirt on an obscure 32-year-old public interest lawyer named Ralph Nader. The reason: Nader had written a book that criticized the Corvair, a General Motors car. But the company’s attempt to discredit Nader and sully his character backfired. The scandal that ensued after the smear campaign was revealed launched Nader into national prominence and established him as the leader of the modern American consumer movement. AN UNREASONABLE MAN traces the life and career of this unique and controversial political figure.

Over the next 30 years, Nader built a legislative record that rivals that of any contemporary president—without ever holding public office. Following the General Motors incident, he took on the Federal Trade Commission, which he felt was shirking its duty to protect consumers against fraud and other harmful business practices. To carry out his extensive campaigns, Nader tapped into the power of young people and recruited students from across the United States. In the 1960s, many young recruits flocked to Washington, attracted by the prospect of changing the system. Known as Nader’s Raiders, this army of activists published a series of book-length reports on issues ranging from workplace safety to air quality.

Many things today’s consumers take for granted—seat belts, airbags, product labeling, free airline tickets after being bumped from an overbooked flight—are largely due to the efforts of Ralph Nader and his citizen groups. But did his foray into presidential politics harm his legacy? When most people hear his name, they think of the political “spoiler” who cost the Democrats the 2000 presidential election. While Nader has become a pariah even among his former friends and allies, AN UNREASONABLE MAN illustrates how he continues to be one of the most trusted activists in America, crusading on behalf of consumer rights.








We’re living on borrowed time.” – Klaus Stohr (World Health Organization)
H5N1-Bird




Description

The H5N1-Bird Flu[1] virus was first found on a farm[2] in Guangdon Province, China in 1996.[3] The first documented outbreak of human infection with H5N1-Bird Flu occurred in Hong Kong in 1997.  These 18 human cases in Hong Kong occurred simultaneously with a pathogenic avian influenza in poultry farms and markets which was caused by a virtually identical virus. Studies concluded that direct contact with diseased poultry was the source of human infection.

For reasons – if any – unknown, most H5N1-Bird flu cases have occurred in healthy children and young adults. 

A difficulty in discussing H5N1-Bird Flu is that the concern really relates to a current strain evolving into a form which passes easily between humans.  Because such strain or strains are not yet known to exist (dare I say “not reported in the press?”), this discussion often contains degrees of equivocation.  Any such evolved strain(s) might also contain changes causing any such infection(s) to produce very mild signs and symptoms in humans.  On the other hand, any such evolved virus(es) might cause proportionately more deaths and suffering than did the calamitous avian flu strain which caused what is commonly referred to as the 1918 Pandemic or as the Spanish Flu.

I had a little bird
Its name was Enza
I opened the window
And in flew Enza [4]   

The 1918 Pandemic was an avian influenza that was easily transmitted between humans.[5]







Most of the 1918 Pandemic victims succumbed to pneumonia caused by opportunistic bacteria that infected those already weakened by the flu (antibiotics had not yet been discovered). 

However, an appreciable minority of the 1918 victims died within days of onset from a more severe pneumonia caused by the virus itself that triggered massive hemorrhaging in their lungs or filled their lungs with fluid thus leading to death by suffocation/drowning; they drowned in their own fluids.  These victims often developed a bluish skin color with variations of (i) blood pouring from their noses, (ii) ears, (iii) mouths and (iv) eye sockets, all with agony and some with delirium. 

More, most 1918 Pandemic deaths (bacterial-pneumatic and drowning) occurred among younger adults between the ages of 15 and 35; people younger than 65 constituted 99% of all “excess” (those above normal) flu deaths in 1918-1919.

Etiology

The cause of H5N1-Bird Flu is viral infection.  Typically, influenza moves via airborne droplets which are inhaled into the victims’ respiratory tracts.  However, the infection process of H5N1-Bird Flu is thought to be via both direct contact with (i) infected poultry, and/or (ii) surfaces and objects contaminated by their feces.

Flu comes in three main forms, designated A, B, and C.  Types B and C affect only humans and have never caused pandemics.  

In contrast, type A flu viruses are found in many types of animals including humans, swine, horses, other mammals, and poultry.  Ducks – and aquatic birds – typically serve as the natural reservoir for all known subtypes of influenza A; i.e., the virus typically infects the birds’ guts without causing symptoms. Within the ducks’ guts the viruses can mutate and/or exchange genetic material with other viral strains some of which are capable of passing to humans. [6] Note, however, that this paper’s particular H5N1-Bird Flu kills birds.[7] It spreads very rapidly through poultry flocks where it damages multiple internal organs. Within 48 hours, the poultry mortality rate can approach 100%.

Type A viruses are categorized into two groups based upon distinct proteins on their surfaces which, in turn, cause the hosts to produce different types of antibodies: types HA and NA.  Hemagglutinin (HA) has at least 15 known variants and neuraminidase (NA) has 9 subtypes.  The HA molecule initiates infection by binding to receptors on the





surfaces of host cells which, in mammals, tend to be cells in the respiratory lining.  The NA protein enables the newly produced viruses to escape the hosts’ cells thus allowing them to potentially infect other hosts’ cells.

Signs and Symptoms

Symptoms of avian influenza in humans range from fever, cough, sore throat, muscle aches, eye infections, pneumonia, and severe respiratory diseases.

Unlike the typically mild respiratory symptoms experienced by most people infected with seasonal influenza, H5N1-Bird Flu is aggressive, causing rapid deterioration resulting in high death rates in humans; viral pneumonia and multi-organ failure have been common among people infected by H5N1-Bird Flu.

Diagnostic Procedures

H5N1-Bird Flu is diagnosed by recognizing symptoms followed by either or both examination of respiratory secretions and blood/serology examination.

Treatment

Data is limited, but Tamiflu and Relenza are thought to reduce the severity and duration of illness caused by H5N1-Bird Flu especially if administered within 48 hours. However, the recent strain of H5N1-Bird Flu isolated in Egypt in March of 2006 was resistant to Tamiflu as was an earlier outbreak in Vietnam in 2005.[8]
Amantadine and Rimantadine can be used to treat H5N1-Bird Flu, but resistance to these drugs seems to develop rapidly; some NON-H5N1-Bird Flu strains are already fully resistant.



Tamiflu and Relenza are expensive to produce and production capacity is limited.  Current capacity, which has recently quadrupled, will produce enough Tamiflu to treat 20% of the world’s population in 10 years. 


















Prognosis

As of 4/2/07 there have been 280 reported cases (to emphasize the obvious, the number of non-reported cases is unknown) of H5N1-Bird Flu with 170 of those cases resulting in death.  Thus, the death rate overall has been 59%.[9]  In contrast, the terrible 1918 Pandemic had a 2% to 5% death rate yet killed 50 to 100 million people worldwide.[10] The death rate of the 1918 Pandemic was up to 50 times the death rates produced by other generic influenza outbreaks.











Prevention

At present, H5N1-Bird Flu does not easily cross from birds to infect humans.

Although potential vaccines for the H5N1-Bird Flu virus are being researched in several countries, no vaccine is in commercial production.  Because any vaccine needs to closely match the pandemic virus, large-scale commercial production probably would not start until any new virus has emerged. Current global production capacity falls far short of the demand expected during a pandemic.

In February 2007, the American Food and Drug Administration (FDA) announced that an H5N1-Bird Flu vaccine developed by Sanofi-Aventis appears to be safe.  However, it is unclear how effective the vaccine might be given the particular mutations the virus-of-the-future might contain.  The FDA announced that the highest doses tested – two 90-microgram doses given one month apart – produced superior results given the testing assumptions than did the use of lower doses; 46% of the 452 people tested with the highest doses produced sufficient antibodies such that it is thought enough protection against H5N1-Bird Flu might be produced.
All evidence to date indicates that close contact with dead or sick birds or their feces is the primary source of human infection with H5N1-Bird Flu.  This would suggest that, theoretically and at a minimum, avoidance of dead and sick birds and their feces is one avenue of prevention.  However, a reasonable source of infection has not been identified in a few cases which may mean there are additional sources of infection. Curiously, few cases have been reported involving poultry workers, and cullers.

Why The Topic Was Chosen and What Was Learned

Foreknowledge is valuable in the event of an H5N1-Bird Flu Pandemic.  Further, I have not previously been required to read about/research relevant and interesting (and powerful) viral maladies specifically and pandemics generally.

Most amazing was the tremendous variability of outcomes produced by viral mutations/evolution and, thus, the difficulty of planning ahead to combat same; a novice such as myself might also express it another way by saying the instability of  viral effects over various periods of time is profound.
Aberich Duerer, the Apocalypse
REFERENCES
Books

John M. Barry, The Great Influenza (2005)
Alfred W. Crosby, America’s Forgotten Pandemic (2003)
Mike Davis, The Monster at Our Door (2005)
Marc Siegel, M.D., Bird Flu (2006)

Newspapers

New York Times, New Strain of Bird Flu Found in Egypt is Resistant to Antiviral Drugs (January 18, 2007)
New York Times,  Scientists Warn That Bird-flu Virus Remains a Threat (February 15, 2007)
Wall Street Journal, FDA Says Bird-Flu Vaccine Seems Safe; Efficacy Unclear (February 27, 2007)

Magazines

Scientific American, Capturing a Killer Flu Virus (January 2005)
Scientific American, Preparing for a Pandemic (November 2005)

Websites


White House News Releases, November 1, 2005. http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2005/11/20051101.html
World Health Organization, Epidemic and Pandemic Alert and Response (EPR), Avian Influenza       http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/en/ (various internal links were accessed)

DVD/Video

PBS American Experience, Influenza 1918 (1998)
A&E/History Channel, The Next Plague (2005)















John Edwards has been bashing big health insurers in recent days with the story of a girl who died waiting for a liver transplant. But the details of the case suggest the Democratic presidential candidate may be oversimplifying the tale.

Nataline Sarkisyan had been battling leukemia for three years. Insurer Cigna Corp. rejected coverage for a liver transplant, then reversed its decision and said it would pay. The 17-year-old died before the operation could take place.

By pushing the case so hard on the campaign trail, Mr. Edwards is raising the emotional tone of the debate on health care, which has already emerged as perhaps the leading domestic issue in the campaign. Mr. Edwards and Sen. Hillary Clinton are among the Democratic candidates attacking health insurers.

"We need a president who will take these people on," Mr. Edwards said at the Democratic presidential debate Saturday night. He said Nataline "lost her life a couple of weeks ago because her insurance company would not pay for a liver-transplant operation."


In New Hampshire yesterday, the candidate's wife, Elizabeth Edwards, put her arm around the girl's mother, Hilda, before Mrs. Sarkisyan spoke at a campaign rally.

Cigna defended its handling of the case. "I'm perplexed that this has become a campaign issue," said Jeffrey Kang, Cigna's chief medical officer. "It is highly unlikely that any health-care insurance system, nationally or internationally, would have covered this procedure."

Insurers are highly unpopular with many doctors, who complain about insurance-company bureaucracy, and with patients who don't like having medical claims denied. Left-leaning critics of the U.S. health-care system say it isn't appropriate for some insurers to be making billions of dollars in profit while tens of millions of Americans go without insurance. They would prefer the "single payer" type of system in many European nations, where the government takes the leading role in paying for care.

While none of the leading Democratic candidates go that far, they have railed against insurers' cherry-picking when they decide who is eligible for a policy. People who are sick or have pre-existing conditions find it's hard or impossible to buy coverage on their own, something the leading Democratic candidates for president all vow to change.

Mr. Edwards, a former trial lawyer and North Carolina senator, wants to offer a government-run public plan, like Medicare, that would be open to all Americans. This could be a step toward the single-payer plan that many liberals want, and Mr. Edwards has said that it's a good opportunity to test that idea's popularity. He also wants to cap insurance-company profits.

The candidates have differed over what role insurance companies should have as health-care change is hammered out. Mr. Edwards takes a harsher tone, saying they can't be negotiated with, while Illinois Sen. Barack Obama says insurance companies deserve a seat at the table.

Nataline's case could provide fuel to both sides of the argument about whether insurance companies generally do a good job covering Americans. The day before Thanksgiving, she received a bone-marrow transplant from her brother. Soon after, her liver failed, and she went into a coma. Her doctors at the medical center of the University of California, Los Angeles, recommended a liver transplant, saying that patients in such situations would have a 65% chance of living another six months.

Cigna said both its own medical experts as well as an outside transplant surgeon and a cancer doctor with transplant expertise concluded there wasn't enough evidence that the procedure would be safe or effective. But after the denial got press coverage, the company reversed the decision on Dec. 20 "out of empathy for the family." Nataline died later the same day.

A UCLA spokeswoman declined to comment yesterday on Nataline's treatment, saying her family hasn't given the university permission to discuss the case.

Cigna said it wouldn't have benefited financially from denying the transplant because it only administered the health plan of Nataline's father's employer. In reversing the decision, it said it would pay for the transplant itself.

"We are asked to make the right clinical decision by our employer customers, so it would have been unfair to make them pay for it," said Dr. Kang, Cigna's chief medical officer.

Richard Freeman, a professor of surgery at Tufts University School of Medicine who wasn't involved in the case, said such cases happen too rarely to provide statistically validated medical evidence about the benefit, if any, of a transplant.

Rather, it "boils down to a philosophical argument," he said. Some doctors want to pursue aggressive treatment of a patient who appears to be dying, believing it's worth improving the chances, however slim, and fostering medical innovation. Others say the trauma and pain of an invasive procedure such as a transplant are likely to outweigh any medical benefit and the financial costs.



John Ford, an associate professor at UCLA who wasn't involved in Nataline's case, questioned in a recent post on his blog whether the survival data for a transplant were clear-cut. "It seems highly unlikely that such data, if it exists at all, has any degree of reliability," he wrote.

Nonetheless, the case has found a natural fit with Mr. Edwards's pitch. The candidate is an experienced practitioner in the modern political art of putting an ordinary person's face on policy prescriptions. At yesterday's rally in New Hampshire, Mr. Edwards turned the microphone over to the family of Nataline. Her father, mother and brother emotionally spoke of her death and their anger at Cigna.

Her father, Grigor Sarkisyan, spoke in raw terms about his loss before a packed crowd of more than 500 people at the Franco-American Center in Manchester, N.H. He said he had promised to buy his daughter a white car when she got her driver's license. "After she passed away, I bought a coffin for her because Cigna -- they killed my daughter. I don't have a daughter any more."

He added that he didn't think he'd have to worry about this sort of issue because his family had health insurance. "That's not right -- not in America," he said, echoing Mr. Edwards' stump speech. "This is not right. Maybe someplace else, but not in America."

The Edwards campaign says the candidate had been talking about Nataline's story for weeks when, on the night of the Iowa caucuses last Thursday, the family heard him mention their daughter on television. They contacted the Armenian National Committee of America, which in turn called the campaign's headquarters.

Karen Ignani, president of America's Health Insurance Plans, the main industry lobby group, said it's addressing the desire for health-care change by making its own proposals for universal coverage. Last month, it offered a proposal for guaranteeing access to individual health insurance to anyone who applies. The industry has long opposed that idea in practice.



[1] Not all viruses of the H5 and H7 subtypes cause the pathology often resulting from what is commonly called “Bird Flu” and what this paper will call H5N1-Bird Flu.
[2] It has been estimated that 2/3rds of the 1,400 human infectious diseases were initially transmitted from animals to humans.
[3] The World Health Organization maintains a “timeline of major events,” which, as of 4/2/07, consists of 16 pages plus one page of references at http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/timeline2007_04_02.pdf.    Some conjecture this strain may have originated in the 1950s.
[4] An American children’s ditty – a jump-roping lyric – referring to the then extant 1918 Pandemic.
[5] As a point of interest, Army Auxiliary Laboratory Number One was dedicated to understanding and solving/curing the disease causing the 1918 Pandemic.  The Lab was headed by scientist Oswald T. Avery and located at The Rockefeller Institute.  However, viruses were too small to be seen via then contemporary microscopes or otherwise until decades later; i.e., their existence was unknown at this time.

[6] Current thinking is that H5 and H7 viruses are introduced to poultry flocks in their low pathogenic form.  When allowed to circulate in poultry populations, the viruses can mutate -- usually within a few months -- into the highly pathogenic H5N1-Bird Flu. Hence, the presence of an H5 or H7 virus in poultry is always cause for concern, even when the viral subtype produces mild symptoms.

[7] The author wonders if this decreases the likelihood of transmission to humans in that, left alone, the hosts die rather than live as reservoirs.
[8] The Egyptian strain was susceptible to Relenza and Amantadine.
[9] The World Health Organization provides a chart of raw numbers at http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/country/cases_table_2007_04_02/en/index.html.  However, the “death rate” calculations are my own.  In 2003, the death rate was 100%; in 2004, 70%; in 2005, 44%; in 2006, 69%; in 2007 (to date) 48%.
[10] Pandemic Mortality 1918-19 Revised

                       1927 Estimate              2002 Estimate

Worldwide       21.64 million             48.8 to 100 million
Asia                       15.78                      26 to 36
India                      12.50                      18.50
China                     ……                         4 to 9.5
East Indies                 .80                         1.50
Europe                     2.16                         2.30
Africa                      1.35                         2.38
W. Hem.                  1.40                         1.54
USA                           .55                          .68

Data from The Monster at Our Door (page 26) (itself citing the work of others).   Ultimately, one third of the Earth’s population may have been infected by the 1918 Pandemic virus; eventually, the virus causing the 1918 Pandemic ran out of fuel, i.e., ran out of accessible human victims and reservoirs.  In the United States, death was so common that toe-tags were affixed before the patients died; the shortage of coffins was such that armed guards were hired to protect the all-too-few remaining that were unsold.  Parents were advised to no longer waste food on their infected children.  In 1918, American Life Expectancy was reduced by 13 years.  Imagine the psychological, social and moral stresses and consequences where a deadly pandemic is spread by your co-workers, neighbors, friends and family?  The stress was so great that seemingly a collective cultural amnesia quickly developed about the 1918 Pandemic. Frighteningly, it is conjectured that an H5N1-Bird Flu pandemic could be so devastating that even the Burger Kings would be shuttered.  See: Hairston Testimony to the 104th Congress Joint Committee on Public Health, Congressional Record, p. 230 (March 22, 2007).

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